Soft, Hard, or No Landing?

Soft, hard, or no landing – the question remains whether the Federal Reserve will be able to pull off its inflation-fighting campaign without a recessionary impact.

U.S. stock market bulls cheered the first quarter as investors gained more confidence in a “soft landing” (tamed inflation but no recession) amid inflation moderation. The prospect of perhaps “no landing” (no recession but persistent inflation) was also considered.

Inflation Mixed for Q1

Costs of goods and services are still rising annually, albeit at a slower pace than the peak of the recent inflation cycle.

Metrics were mixed in the first quarter, with consumer inflation picking up in January (December data), easing in February, and then rising in March.

The last Consumer Price Index (CPI) release of the first quarter showed a 3.2% rise year-over-year versus 3.1 % expected. Inflation is still running hotter than the Fed’s 2% target rate, but the market wants rate cuts.

Labor Market

Labor market resilience, based on government nonfarm payroll data, persisted throughout Q1. First-quarter data showed solid payroll gains (216,000 in December, 353,000 in January, and 275,000 in February) with all three months beating analyst consensus expectations.

The data releases have been strong, indicating economic strength but the initial figures are not quite conducive to the market’s desire for rate cuts. Downward revisions have come to the rescue somewhat.

“Downward revisions” essentially means changes to the initial data releases in subsequent months. Data shows that the initial numbers have been revised lower for 10 of the last 12 months.

Such revisions can help to bolster the case for Fed rate cuts, indicating a less strong labor market.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate also showed a mixed picture for the first quarter. However, there was a notable tick higher in unemployment in the last monthly data release of the quarter, which showed unemployment sitting at a one-year high of 3.90%.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Summary & Outlook

The first quarter featured two Fed meetings, with the Fed leaving rates unchanged in January and March. The result is the same current target overnight lending rate of 5.25 – 5.50%, a 23-year high.

While the Fed left rates unchanged at the most recent March meeting, the Fed did let us know that three 25-basis-point cuts are expected by the Federal Open Market Committee in 2024 via its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

Markets loved Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary at the post-meeting press conference, as all three major stock indices jumped to record high levels. However, on the last day of the quarter, Powell reiterated that the Fed needs to see more good inflation readings before it is ready to cut rates.

At the end of the first quarter, markets were pricing a 95.8% probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at the May 1st Fed meeting and a 63.6% chance of a rate cut at the following meeting on June 12th.

One thing we know for sure is that those percentages will change each day.

What If the Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates?

Anything is possible. Market watchers were looking for six cuts; now, it has been whittled down to three for 2024. Yet, major U.S. stock indexes have risen while the number of cuts expected declined.

Cutting rates with the economy running hot would defy conventional wisdom, and the “this time is different” narrative can be cause for concern for many veteran investors.

It’s an election year, and the dynamics are multifaceted. We will see what future inflation and job data look like.

Where Is the Pullback?

It’s been quite a while since a meaningful pullback in the S&P 500.

Market sentiment was very high in Q1, and what could potentially or ultimately be deemed a rate-cutting delusion is still alive and well, helping to fuel the gains of major U.S. stock indexes.

Nobody can definitively know what will happen with the Fed cutting rates or what the interest rate markets will do on their own.

Market pullbacks are healthy in bull markets, and there hasn’t been one in a prolonged period. Such corrections are more common than most people think.

Crypto Rise & Volatility

It was a wild quarter in crypto, with Bitcoin rising 65% in Q1, fueled by spot ETF buying and concepts of tighter supply in Bitcoin coming in April’s halving event.

“The rise in Bitcoin ETFs, coupled with the transformation of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF structure, has led to a significant surge in assets under management (AUM) for Bitcoin-related investment products,” said Ronen Cojocaru, CEO at 8081.

To begin the second quarter of trading, the mood of the crypto markets soured, and volatility was on full display as the U.S. dollar gained strength, helping to spur selling across many cryptocurrencies.

The prospects of Ethereum ETFs continue to be discussed.

Long-Run Planning

If you asked someone well versed in finance three years ago, “What would the stock market do if interest rates went from sub-1% to over 5% in three years”?

Certainly, the overwhelming answer would have been for stock market declines during the rise in rates. These markets tend to defy conventional wisdom time after time; this is why long-term investing is a lifelong commitment with the fruits of time bearing themselves as a result of investor discipline.

With the above quarterly recap noted, we would love to hear how things are going for you. If first-quarter market developments are on your mind, or if there is anything else we can help with, please feel free to email questions@richmondbrothers.com or call us at 517-435-4040.

We are always here as a resource for you!