Is the sky falling?
We’re sure you saw the headlines.
After hitting new highs last month, markets experienced a significant decline, erasing months of gains.1
It may feel like the sky is falling.
For those of our client family who have implemented the Smoother Rider strategies, you already have “safety nets” or added protection to this extreme volatility.
For those that haven’t implemented the Smoother Ride strategies or haven’t heard of them, these options help address exactly what we we will discuss next.
So, let’s take a step back and take a look at what’s going on.
(Scroll to the end if you want our takeaways.)
What’s behind the market drop?
A couple of major factors fueled the sudden selloff:
1. Weaker-than-expected economic data that sparked recession fears.
July’s soft jobs report triggered a recession indicator that caused U.S. stocks to sell off in fear.2
Though it does not appear that the U.S. is in a recession now, weakening economic data is increasing the risk that a recession could strike.
2. Speculative currency trading by corporate investors.
“Carry trading” is a risky strategy that involves borrowing money in a currency with a low interest rate (such as the Japanese yen) and then reinvesting the money somewhere else where returns are higher.3
This strategy has become popular in recent years because of Japan’s very low interest rates.
Its success depends on cheap borrowing currencies and low market volatility.
However, that strategy is no longer paying off.
Japan’s central bank recently hiked interest rates, and markets grew more volatile, hitting traders with a double whammy.
The “unwinding” of these speculative investments triggered a global selloff as traders sold positions to cover losses.
Hard investing truth: there’s always a reason to sell.
Markets are always waiting for the next opportunity to melt down.
That’s part and parcel of being an investor these days.
The market’s fluctuations may prompt feelings of anxiety and fear, often resulting in impulsive selling.
However, it’s important to note that reacting with panic and selling hastily in response to market downturns can be an ill-advised course of action.
Selling and sitting on the sidelines could mean missing out on the best market days as investors sell the dip and turn positive again.
Though markets bounced back quickly, it’s possible the volatility and selling pressure will continue.
It’s very common for markets to experience a selloff after reaching historic highs.
We’re watching closely and monitoring the data, including possible Federal Reserve decisions that could move markets.
Richmond Brothers continues to hold the Smoother Ride options in high regard for exactly this type of volatility. These options are used for liquid funds and provide added security for the ups and downs of the market. You can learn more about these options here.
It feels like we’re hitting especially uncertain times. With new threats of war, a presidential election, and economic fears, the crystal ball seems very cloudy.
These are the moments when taking a step back and reminding ourselves of the why behind our strategy is so important.
Please reach out if you have doubts or concerns. It’s why we’re here. We’ll continue to stay in touch as updates arise as well.
Call us directly at (517) 435-4040 if you’re worrying about the current situation.
One of the most important parts of our job is being a reassuring voice and educated opinion when the market jitters hit.
Sources:
1. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/04/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Chart sources:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500#0
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2019/05/23/blog-the-impact-of-us-china-trade-tensions
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1544612323004208
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/13/economy/cpi-inflation-june/index.html
https://www.law.uw.edu/news-events/news/2023/svb-collapse
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67039975
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Content prepared by Snappy Kraken.
Richmond Brothers, Inc. is an SEC-Registered Investment Adviser.
This material is intended to provide general information to help you understand basic financial planning strategies and should not be construed as financial advice. All investments are subject to risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
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