As we move from February into March, the headlines haven’t slowed down.

Tariffs. Trade rulings. Tensions in Iran. Oil prices. Political back-and-forth.

And when there’s noise in the world, markets tend to react.

In this month’s Matt’s Minutes, Matt Curfman, our CEO & Co-Owner, shares perspective on where markets actually stand year-to-date, why “V-shaped” markets can create unique challenges, and how we’re thinking about portfolio design moving forward.

(Full transcript below)

Video Highlights

01:15 — A Quick Market Reality Check
Despite heavy headlines, markets are relatively flat year-to-date:

• S&P 500: roughly -0.5%
• Nasdaq: roughly -2.9%
• Dow Jones: roughly +1.4%

The takeaway? We’re not in runaway growth — but we’re not in collapse either.

02:30 — Revisiting the “Tale of Three Markets”
Matt brings back a framework many of you have seen before – our Tale of Three Markets video, where we compare:

1. Rising Market
2. Falling/Recessionary Market
3. V-Shaped Market

In consistently rising markets, most strategies perform well.
In prolonged downturns, safety nets tend to shine.
But V-shaped markets — where markets fall sharply and then reverse quickly — can create whiplash.

03:37 — What Happened in 2025
In March–April 2025, markets declined rapidly amid tariff deadline concerns. Some defensive strategies triggered — which felt good in the moment.

But when policy reversed and markets rebounded sharply, those defensive moves missed part of the upside.

That’s the tension of V-shaped markets.

04:26 — The Emotional vs. Practical Response
When volatility hits, the emotional instinct is clear:

“Put safety nets on everything.”

The practical side asks a harder question:

Is there a thoughtful middle ground?

Historically, blending smoother-ride approaches and buy-and-hold strategies inside the same liquid account hasn’t always been easy. But we are actively exploring solutions that may allow for more flexibility moving forward.

06:35 — Noise vs. Economic Reality
Headlines are loud.

But underneath the noise, current economic indicators remain relatively strong.

That doesn’t eliminate risk — but it does remind us that market pricing and economic fundamentals aren’t always the same thing.

Key Takeaways

Markets Aren’t Exploding — or Collapsing

Year-to-date returns are relatively modest. The intensity of headlines doesn’t always match market data.

V-Shaped Markets Create Unique Trade-Offs

Going defensive can protect you on the way down.
But it may also limit participation in sharp rebounds.

There’s no “perfect” answer — only alignment with your goals and comfort.

Emotion and Strategy Are Not the Same

It’s natural to want maximum protection during volatility.
It’s wise to evaluate trade-offs before acting.

We’re Actively Planning

We are not static. Behind the scenes, we are evaluating additional strategies for the liquid side of portfolios — including Fidelity accounts — to better navigate choppy, V-shaped environments if they persist in 2026 and beyond.

In Closing

Markets are moving. Headlines are loud.

But our role remains steady.

We are here to:

• Educate
• Inform
• Guide
• Co-author solutions that make sense for your family

If recent volatility has raised questions — or if you’re simply curious about how your current allocation aligns with today’s environment — we welcome the conversation.

📧 questions@richmondbrothers.com

Thank you for the continued trust you place in our team. We don’t take it lightly.

The commentary in this video reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of Richmond Brothers employees and should not be regarded as advisory services provided by Richmond Brothers. Statements are subject to change without notice. Any mention of securities or market performance is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax advice; please consult your tax professional regarding your specific situation.

Full Transcript –

Hi everyone, this is Matt Curfman here with Richmond Brothers — along with Oliver, our unofficial mini-goldendoodle mascot and we are here to provide you with a Matt’s minutes for the end of February, early part of March. Oliver was so excited- he missed being on camera. He wanted to get back out and say hi to each and every one of you.
He is just over two years old, he’s hypoallergenic and he provides a lot of joy and love and comfort and support to me, our team and any one of our clients who have met him, at any event.
So thanks for being on, Oliver. All right, so now over to something a little more serious. So we’re just continuing to see tons and tons of noise. And noise can be anything that affects pricing or movements of the market. And as we think about year to date, we’ve had a number of questions come up just to say, hey, you know, sometime in February, my market money is earning x/1%. It feels like that’s not quite right. And so just for a little bit of perspective, as we pulled some of the market pieces I just wanted to share, like you look at the headlines like the Dow, the NASDAQ, the S&P 500.
I’ve got some notes here just so I make sure and say, but through midday today, meaning March 2nd, so the stock, the start of March, market wise, the S, P 500, is actually -0.5%.
So, it’s down, it’s actually pretty flat for the year. If you go into the Nasdaq as of mid-morning, again on March 2nd, it’s -2.89%, so almost -3% from January 1st. And the Dow Jones, which again is the smallest, combination of bigger older companies is up, it’s up around 1.4%.
So, to give you some perspective: markets, are really not in growth mode. In the late part of January, they were a little bit higher. They’ve come down some. There’s a lot of noise and things happening in the world over the weekend, around Iran and missile strikes and all of these, these things that are causing concern with oil prices.
What does this mean for the world? What does this mean for the economy? And there’s just been a lot of noise over the year around tariffs and trade wars and tariff deadlines. And I wanted to bring back up a piece of information. Many of you have continued to watch my Tale of Three Markets videos where we talked about a rising market, a falling market and a V shaped market.
And then we kind of compared and contrast very simply and very high level, kind of like a smoother ride strategy with safety nets versus a buy and hold or more of a growth. And so, I’m going to actually bring that back up here just for reference. So, the video that I made last summer is referenced here, but this was what I went through.
And so, when you’re in a consistently rising market, whether you have the smoother ride or you have other strategies in place, both are going to do really well. When you have a recessionary style market where the market collapses and just keeps falling, that’s where the safety nets and smoother ride are probably going to be better.
However, if we zoom in on number three, which is this kind of V shaped market, what that means is the market falls enough where something like a smoother ride goes defensive. But then there’s a sharp reversal. And a sharp reversal in 2025 was all about tariff deadlines.
And right in this March to April window last year, that was when the tariff deadlines were and markets were rapidly declining. Enough so, that smoother ride was, went defensive, which felt really good in the moment. However, then there was a sharp political reversal, out of the White House that moved tariff deadlines back.
And we don’t believe that they expected the market to collapse so much based on tariff deadlines. Now fast forward a year later, we’re in the same March, heading into April, heading up to April, I suppose, and the Supreme Court recently struck down some of the tariffs that have already been received.
And so again, not going to get into a ton of detail on that. Then you have strikes in Iran and oil, and so there’s still some concern out there. So the emotional side of us says we really want all of our money to have safety nets. The practical side, if we step outside of that, says, well, maybe there’s some answer that lies in the middle.
So can we actually have some safety nets, maybe in a different way, and also have some buy and hold that really can ride the roller coaster, but we believe give you better outcomes. And up until this point the answer has been challenging. You generally can’t blend those strategies across an account.
However, in the effort of trying to help continue to keep you educated, informed, and we want to guide you through all of this- with your investments, with your money, with your life savings, with your retirement, one of my roles is to continue to find solutions that can help move us in a direction.
And if we Continue to stay in a V shaped market or these continue to happen every year for the next three years. 2026, 27 and 28, which is a concern of ours. Being all in on the smoother ride may not be the best outcome long term.
Now as a caveat, anyone in the smoother ride, pretty much everything has been bought back in by and large since the middle of June of 2025. And since buybacks, it has actually done well because really markets have been in a reasonable upward ascent.
Now again, January 1st through end of February, early March. I just told you they’re fairly flat, a little bit negative. That’s just the last two months. So again, no immediate action needed but just wanted to start to plant some seeds and you’re going to hear from me a lot more this month and leading into April as we start to roll out some more solutions.
We want to acknowledge that the V shaped market did take place in 2025 and so we’re really trying to aim, is there a path where we can kind of come in the middle of this? And if a V shaped market happened every year, we want to continue to provide solutions, that make sense and can help just blend the ins and outs of what a portfolio allocation can look like in these very choppy environments.
Underneath all of that we want to just look and say is the noise causing the market to move, but is that also causing us to move closer to recession or are the underlying economic indicators still pretty strong? At the moment, the data suggests that underlying economic indicators are still pretty strong.
So, as noise comes out and affects market pricing, you know, we want to be very aware of this number three scenario, the V shaped market, and then continue to come back to you with solutions. So, thank you for tuning in, thank you for checking this out. I will continue to put out more information and more content in the month of March and leading up to April.
And rest assured, I want to let you know we are aware, we are actively planning behind the scenes of additional strategies that we can bring to the liquid side of your fidelity accounts, you know, where a buy and hold might currently be or where a smoother ride this really can apply and will apply to every family that we work with.
So very excited to plant the seed and start to provide you more and more information and education. Thank you so much for tuning in. Thank you so much for listening. We are here to educate, inform and guide you and we’re here to support you no matter what the world is throwing in our path together.

Thank you so much. And if you have any questions, our main email is questions@richmondbrothers.com.

The commentary in this video reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of Richmond Brothers employees and should not be regarded as advisory services provided by Richmond Brothers. Statements are subject to change without notice. Any mention of securities or market performance is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax advice; please consult your tax professional regarding your specific situation.