Interest rates. Inflation. Artificial intelligence. Oil prices. Elections.

The headlines seem to change every day, and it can be difficult to know which stories deserve your attention and which are simply part of the normal ebb and flow of the markets.

As we move into summer, many retirees and pre-retirees are asking a familiar question:

What do today’s economic headlines actually mean for my retirement plan?

In this month’s Matt’s Minutes, Matt Curfman, CFP®, CEO & Co-Owner of Richmond Brothers, shares several areas our team is watching, including interest rates, inflation, corporate earnings, artificial intelligence, and global events—and why retirement planning is often about staying focused on your goals rather than trying to predict the next headline.

Timestamps

0:30 – Economic headlines we’re watching

0:46 – Interest rates, inflation, and the Federal Reserve

1:25 – Why corporate earnings still matter

2:10 – AI growth beyond the technology sector

3:35 – Iran, oil prices, and consumer spending

4:45 – Summer market pullbacks and what they mean

5:20 – Elections, uncertainty, and staying focused

5:30 – Finding the right balance in your portfolio

6:10 – AE Wealth Management strategy updates

6:52 – Final thoughts and gratitude

(Full transcript below)

What We’re Watching

Interest Rates and Inflation Remain Front and Center

Interest rates continue to be one of the most discussed topics in the financial world.

While rates have remained relatively stable, inflation concerns and energy prices continue influencing expectations about future Federal Reserve decisions. These factors can affect everything from borrowing costs to bond yields and overall market sentiment.

Rather than trying to predict exactly where rates will go next, we continue focusing on how different economic environments may impact retirement planning over time.

Corporate Earnings Continue Supporting Market Growth

One thing we’re paying attention to behind the scenes is corporate earnings.

At the end of the day, companies need to continue growing profits to support long-term market growth. Many businesses have continued reporting strong earnings, which helps provide context for some of the market strength we’ve seen over the past year.

Will growth continue at the same pace? No one knows for certain. But earnings remain one of the key indicators investors watch when evaluating the health of the broader economy.

Artificial Intelligence Is Expanding Across Industries

Artificial intelligence remains one of the biggest stories in today’s economy.

What’s interesting is that the conversation is expanding well beyond technology companies. Healthcare organizations, financial firms, utilities, manufacturers, and many other industries are finding ways to use AI to improve efficiency and productivity.

The question many investors are asking is whether these investments will translate into meaningful business growth over time. It’s one of the developments we’ll continue monitoring as the technology evolves.

Global Events Can Affect More Than Markets

Global events often create uncertainty for investors, but their impact can extend beyond market volatility.

Matt discusses ongoing concerns surrounding Iran and global oil prices and how higher energy costs can influence inflation, consumer spending, and economic growth.

When households spend more on fuel and other necessities, they often have less available for discretionary spending. Because consumer spending remains an important driver of economic activity, it’s one of the indicators economists continue watching closely.

Your Retirement Plan Is More Important Than the Headlines

The same headline can affect different families in different ways.

Someone drawing income from their portfolio may view market volatility differently than someone who is still saving for retirement. A family focused on legacy planning may have different priorities than someone focused primarily on retirement income.

That’s why retirement planning involves more than reacting to headlines. It requires understanding how income, investments, taxes, healthcare, and legacy planning work together over time.

The goal isn’t predicting every market movement. The goal is helping ensure your retirement plan remains aligned with your personal goals, circumstances, and priorities.

Key Takeaways

• Economic headlines will continue to change throughout the year.
• Corporate earnings remain an important indicator of business health and market growth.
• Inflation and energy prices can influence consumer spending and market sentiment.
• Retirement planning works best when income, investments, taxes, healthcare, and legacy planning are considered together.

In Closing

Every year brings a new set of headlines.

Some will dominate the news cycle for weeks. Others will disappear as quickly as they arrive.

What remains constant is the importance of having a retirement plan built around your goals rather than today’s news.

Interest rates may change. Inflation may rise or fall. Markets will experience periods of optimism and periods of uncertainty.

Our role is to help families evaluate those developments within the context of their broader retirement plan and continue making thoughtful decisions as circumstances evolve.

At Richmond Brothers, we remain committed to helping educate, inform, and guide the families we serve while helping them live fearlessly into and beyond retirement.

The commentary in this video reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of Richmond Brothers employees and should not be regarded as advisory services provided by Richmond Brothers. Statements are subject to change without notice. Any mention of securities or market performance is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax advice; please consult your tax professional regarding your specific situation.

Full Transcript

Hi everyone. Matt Curfman, CFP®, CEO & Co-Owner of Richmond Brothers, here with my trusty economic companion, Mr. Oliver, with a nice little yawn there because he knows we’re going to be talking about the economy, markets, the headlines, what things can impact your retirement dollars, and what thoughts we have about them.

All right, Oliver, thanks for your help. Thank you for indulging me.

As we head into the beginning of June, there are a couple of headlines we’re still talking about and hearing quite a bit. One is interest rates.

Interest rates are remaining fairly stable, and depending on whether you’re looking at the 10-year Treasury or the 30-year Treasury, rates have gone up a little bit. That’s largely due to uncertainty surrounding inflation and oil prices, which we’ll get into later.

There has also been a new Federal Reserve Chair announced and sworn in since my last Matt’s Minute. That could have an impact on the direction of interest rates and the economy. There are also ongoing discussions about whether the Fed remains an independent institution, unswayed by political views or the White House.

Again, these are simply questions we’re seeing raised in the headlines.

Inflation is still here, largely because of oil prices, and I’ll touch on that separately.

From an economic standpoint, we’re looking closely at corporate earnings. Corporate earnings are really what justify share prices when you look at the overall stock market, including the S&P 500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq.

In general, when you look year over year, corporate earnings are still growing at a fairly strong pace. That can arguably help justify the growth pattern we’re seeing in the stock market behind the scenes.

Will that continue at the same rate over the next year? Do we expect that? The answer is: who knows? Growth is expected, but the question is at what level.

Then you tie that into artificial intelligence, and that growth is expanding beyond just the technology sector. Businesses across healthcare, finance, utilities, and many other industries are beginning to utilize artificial intelligence to gain efficiencies in what they’re already doing.

What that does is allow businesses to continue growing, especially when unemployment remains so low. Mathematically, there simply are not many additional workers available to hire in order to keep the economy growing through workforce expansion alone.

Again, these are simply things we’re paying attention to and headlines we’ve been watching over the last couple of weeks and throughout the past month.

The question many people are asking is whether we’re in a technology bubble or an AI bubble. A bubble simply means things have gotten so large that people wonder whether they’re going to contract. Is the bubble going to burst?

You can think back to periods like the late 1990s and the Internet technology bubble. Then you look at 2007, 2008, and 2009 and think about the real estate bubble and the financial crisis.

There are certainly arguments on both sides. However, I’ll go back to the earnings discussion. If corporate earnings continue to grow, that can be one metric used to justify the market’s continued growth.

Again, that’s simply something we’re paying attention to.

Next is geopolitical uncertainty.

We’re another month into ongoing tensions involving Iran, and there remains a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the impact on global oil prices. When oil prices rise, it ties directly into our earlier discussion about inflation.

Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of economic activity, and when consumers’ budgets are strained because they’re spending more at the pump, they have less money available for other purchases, whether that’s vacations, food, groceries, or other discretionary spending.

That’s where concerns about inflation come into play, as it could potentially slow down or derail economic growth.

So far, consumers have remained fairly resilient, and spending patterns have stayed strong. Again, these are simply indicators we monitor behind the scenes.

We don’t know what the timeline looks like, and there doesn’t appear to be any clear indication of when tensions involving Iran may ease, if they do at all. The assumption is that if the conflict continues, oil prices will likely remain elevated.

Historically, markets will often experience a pullback during the summer months. There’s no exact science behind that. Sometimes there’s simply a seasonal slowdown because there isn’t as much economic data being released during the summer.

There’s often plenty of noise, but not necessarily a lot of new data.

It’s simply something we want to keep on our radar. If that were to happen, remember that temporary market pullbacks are a very normal part of the market cycle.

What we want to monitor is whether conditions are becoming worse, whether risks are increasing, and whether any adjustments need to be made. That’s where we’ll continue paying close attention.

Then, in the second half of the year, we’ll also begin approaching the midterm elections, which could create additional uncertainty.

Our goal, as we partner with you on your financial journey, is to continue finding the right balance within your portfolio for your unique situation.

That may mean having some assets with safety nets, some more conservative investments, and some assets within Fidelity utilizing liquid strategies, stocks, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds.

Our objective is to continue helping you pursue the best risk-adjusted outcomes based on your goals and circumstances.

With that in mind, we’ve received a lot of questions and have had a great deal of ongoing dialogue regarding our expanding offerings and holdings within your Fidelity accounts, as well as the DocuSigns and our new strategies through AE Wealth Management.

We’ve had excellent discussions throughout the entire month of May as of the recording of this video.

Relative to the assets we manage for individual families, more than 85% of those assets now have access to the AE Wealth strategies. There is still approximately 15% that we’re hoping to connect with through a few additional conversations and follow-up discussions.

If you’ve received those DocuSigns and haven’t signed them yet, or if you still have questions, please reach out to us. We’re here to support you.

You can contact us at questions@richmondbrothers.com, and someone from our advisory team will be happy to have a one-on-one conversation with you.

Thank you again for your continued partnership, confidence, and trust.

Our aim is to educate, inform, and guide you through your financial journey, no matter what the world throws in our path.

Thank you for being part of Richmond Brothers, and have a beautiful start to June.