Inflation. Oil prices. Interest rates. Global conflict. Midterm elections.

There always seems to be another reason to worry. When you are approaching retirement or already living in it, those headlines can feel especially important because you may be wondering what they mean for your savings, your income and the life you have planned.

In this month’s Matt’s Minutes, Matt Curfman, CFP®, CEO & Co-Owner of Richmond Brothers, discusses what investors sometimes call a “wall of worry.” Each concern adds another brick to the wall, yet markets and businesses can continue moving forward even when uncertainty remains.

Joined once again by Oliver and Theo, Matt looks at the concerns competing for our attention, what is happening beneath the headlines and how to decide whether a development meaningfully affects your financial plan.

“They climb a wall of worry because underlying businesses continue to grow through that uncertainty.”

— Matt Curfman, CFP®

Timestamps

0:00 – Welcome and an Update from Theo and Oliver

0:45 – Understanding the Wall of Worry

1:07 – War Oil Prices and Household Inflation

2:00 – The Federal Reserve September Decision

3:00 – What Corporate Earnings Are Telling Us

4:10 – Midterm Elections and Market History

4:54 – Why Markets Can Rise Through Uncertainty

5:11 – Balancing Protection and Long Term Growth

5:33 – Upcoming Client Event and Closing

(Full Transcript Below)

Today’s Wall of Worry

The current wall has no shortage of bricks.

The continuing conflict with Iran has added uncertainty around global oil supplies and energy prices. That matters beyond the financial markets because higher energy costs can eventually reach household budgets through gasoline, transportation and the cost of everyday goods.

Recent inflation data shows some of that effect. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices increased 3.4% over the 12 months ending in August. Energy prices increased 16.3% during that period, while food prices increased 2.7%. Gasoline accounted for more than one-third of the monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index.

If you are preparing for retirement, rising costs may affect the income you expect to need. If you are already retired, they may affect how far your current income goes and how much flexibility remains for the things you hoped to enjoy.

The effect will be different for every household. What matters is that your plan continues to reflect the life you are actually living.

What Is Happening Beneath the Headlines

The headlines tell us a lot about the risks investors are facing. Corporate earnings help tell another part of the story.

FactSet reported that the S&P 500’s blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the second quarter was 50.4% as of August 7. Alphabet and Amazon contributed significantly to that number, but even without those two companies, the remaining companies showed earnings growth of 32%.

The strength was not limited to one or two corners of the market. Among the companies that had reported at that point, 86% exceeded earnings-per-share estimates, and 10 of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors reported year-over-year earnings growth.

None of this makes the risks disappear, and it does not tell us what markets will do next. It does help explain why markets can move higher when so many people remain worried.

As Matt puts it, markets climb a wall of worry because underlying businesses continue to grow through that uncertainty.

More Bricks Will Always Be Added

Interest rates are another part of today’s uncertainty. When Matt recorded this update, investors were waiting to see what the Federal Reserve would do at its September 15–16 meeting.

As of the morning of September 16, when this article was finalized, the meeting was still underway and the Federal Reserve had not yet published its policy statement. Matt’s comments in the video and transcript reflect what was known at the time of recording.

Changes in interest rates can affect borrowing, saving and different parts of the financial markets. But trying to anticipate every Federal Reserve decision can quickly pull attention away from whether your income, investments and available cash are working together in a way that supports your life.

Midterm elections are also adding to the noise. As Election Day approaches, campaign advertisements, forecasts and political commentary will become increasingly difficult to avoid.

Research supplied by Invesco offers historical context. The president’s political party has frequently lost seats in the House of Representatives during midterm elections, while economic growth has continued through many different combinations of political leadership.

These historical patterns do not predict a particular election outcome or future market performance. They simply provide perspective when political headlines are competing for investors’ attention.

What the Wall of Worry Means for Your Plan

There will always be uncertainty. The presence of uncertainty does not automatically mean your strategy needs to change.

What matters is whether something has changed in your own life.

Higher expenses may affect the income you need. A change in your family, health, work or retirement timeline may affect your priorities. Market movements may also reveal that you are less comfortable with risk than you previously believed.

At Richmond Brothers, we believe in having a protected base in your portfolio, along with some assets that have the opportunity to grow over time. The appropriate balance will depend on your goals, time horizon, income needs and comfort with risk.

Your plan should also help you maintain enough liquidity for near-term needs and understand where your retirement income will come from. When those pieces are coordinated, you have a framework for deciding which developments deserve your attention, and which may simply be another part of living and investing in an uncertain world.

Has anything changed in your life, your goals or what you need your plan to do for you?

Key Takeaways

• Inflation, energy prices, interest rates and elections are adding to today’s wall of worry.
• Strong corporate earnings help explain how markets can move forward amid uncertainty.
• Your income needs, liquidity, time horizon and personal circumstances should remain central to your financial decisions.
• A meaningful change in your life may be a reason to revisit your current strategy.

In Closing

There will always be something competing for your attention. The question is whether the latest development meaningfully changes your life, your goals or what you need from your retirement strategy.

If something has changed—or you’ve been wondering whether your current plan still fits—we’d be honored to have that conversation with you.

We appreciate the opportunity to be part of your financial team and to help you navigate whatever the world puts in our path.

Richmond Brothers, Inc. is an SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. The commentary in this video reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of Richmond Brothers employees and should not be regarded as advisory services provided by Richmond Brothers. Statements are subject to change without notice. Any mention of securities or market performance is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax advice; please consult your tax professional regarding your specific situation.

Full Transcript:

Hi everyone, Matt Curfman here from Richmond Brothers with an update of Matt’s Minutes for the month of September as we head into the fall of 2026. I have, as you can see, my two trusty companions. This is Theo. Theo is almost five months old, and he is becoming quite the economic advisor.
And you all know Oliver. He’s almost three years old. They are very, very good brothers and, obviously, a wonderful support system for me. Thank you for indulging me. I’m going to set these guys down.
Honestly, a lot of people write me short messages and tell me how much they like seeing the dogs in my Matt’s Minutes videos. So they will continue to show up in my Matt’s Minutes videos.

The headline that I want to focus on is what I’ll call the wall of worry. The wall of worry means that, psychologically, we just keep putting another brick, another brick, another brick into this wall. All of these bricks are worries about what is happening in our world and in the headlines, perhaps economically. There are a lot of them.

Number one, if I think about the Iran war, that conflict began in late February. So we are over six months into that war. It has caused a lot of volatility in the world, including global unrest and geopolitical uncertainty, and it is certainly having an impact on markets as the war continues.
Obviously, a lot of it is about oil prices and the ability to travel through the Strait of Hormuz. As I record this video, oil prices are just above $100 a barrel, which translates into higher fuel prices for all of us as individuals.
As transportation costs increase, so do food prices. Fuel and food are really the two areas where we are seeing the greatest inflationary effect on most households.

If we then go over to the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve meets September 15 and September 16 to determine whether it is going to keep the short-term interest rate in the economy steady, in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, or whether it thinks inflation is too hot. Usually, that concern would be driven right now, as I just said, by oil prices and food costs for consumers.
According to FactSet, there is an 85% to 90% probability that the Fed is going to consider raising the short-term rate to 3.75% to 4%.
Again, if you are a large bondholder, typically, if the Federal Reserve starts moving rates upward, that does not fare well for underlying bond prices, at least temporarily. This would not be a huge shift, and it is widely anticipated, but I am sure there will still be some market shock.

Another area is corporate earnings. With all of these things going on, what else is happening economically with companies in, for example, the S&P 500?
When we go back to the second quarter, which was April 1 through June 30, year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 was around 50%, according to FactSet. I’m going to say that again: five-zero, 50%. That is phenomenal.
However, there were two very strong companies in that category: Alphabet, which is Google, and Amazon. If you remove those two – I’ll call them AI players or technology players – the rest of the S&P 500, the other 498 companies, still had earnings growth of more than 32%, which is still incredible from a historical standpoint and perspective.
About 85% of the 500 companies exceeded their projected earnings-per-share estimates, and there are 11 sectors in the S&P 500. Ten out of the 11 showed year-over-year earnings growth.

As you think about this, there are certainly all kinds of headlines that add to the wall of worry, not least of which are the upcoming midterm elections. We’re already seeing lots of ads online, television advertisements, radio advertisements, and flyers in our mailboxes.
According to Invesco research looking back over the last six decades, the president’s party heading into midterm elections has statistically tended to lose House seats in those elections.
We then asked: What happens to the stock market in the calendar year following midterm elections? If you look over those same 60 years, or six decades, the stock market has been positive in those years, regardless of the election outcome.

What is the underlying idea here? Markets aren’t climbing because there is nothing to worry about. There are certainly a lot of things to worry about. They climb a wall of worry because underlying businesses continue to grow through that uncertainty. That is the theme I want to leave you with today.

There are a lot of things out there. At Richmond Brothers, we believe in having a protected base in your portfolio, along with some assets that have the opportunity to grow over time. Having that balance is really important, especially for those of you who are retired, nearing retirement, or have been in retirement for many years.

With that, we’re going to keep an eye out, and we’ll keep you up to speed on anything that develops. We do have a client educational event coming up at the end of September. It will be hosted at Jackson College. I am sure we will be recording it, and we can send it out to those of you who are not local.
We appreciate the opportunity to continue to partner with you, to be on your financial team, and to help guide you, no matter what the world throws in our path.

Thank you so much for tuning in, and thank you for being part of the Richmond Brothers family.

Richmond Brothers, Inc. is an SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. The commentary in this video reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of Richmond Brothers employees and should not be regarded as advisory services provided by Richmond Brothers. Statements are subject to change without notice. Any mention of securities or market performance is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax advice; please consult your tax professional regarding your specific situation.